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On the Moneyed Midways - July 21, 2006

Carnival Midway from The Jerk Welcome to this week's edition of On the Moneyed Midways, a summary of the best posts from each of the week's blog carnivals dedicated to money and business-related matters, with one post declared to be The Best Post of the Week, Anywhere!(TM)!

Just click here for the best posts the week that was....

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The Incredibly Shrinking New York Times

Earlier this week, the New York Times announced that it would be shrinking the size of its pages to save money. Oh, and its staff too. Again.

Here's a quick timeline of New York Times recent history of staff reductions:

January 2001

New York Times announces that it will cut 69 jobs of its Internet staff (at the time, 17% of its Internet workforce.)

April 2001

New York Times announces will begin across-the-board layoffs. Job cuts include 100 employees from its regional newspaper group.

May 2005

New York Times annouces staff reductions of 190 employees (less than 2% of workforce).

September 2005

New York Times announces layoffs of 500 employees (4% of workforce.)

July 2006

New York Times announces will shrink newspaper (newsprint), news (5%) and employee headcount by 250 (2%).

By our count, we find that the New York Times has laid off some 1109 employees in the six years since the beginning of the century, a little over 8% of the total number of its employees in 2000.

The Real Question

Of course, the real question has nothing to do with how many hard-working people the New York Times will slash from its payroll. Oh, no. The real question is: How will the same business conditions that have led to the ongoing shrinkage (in workforce, and now literally) of the New York Times affect publisher Arthur "Pinch" Sulzberger's annual bonus?

What makes this question relevant is how the New York Times' Board of Directors acted just last year, as the Times' management team, led by Sulzberger, moved to reduce its staff by 500 people as a permanent cost savings measure. Despite the newspaper's stagnant business condition, which apparently required the ouster of 4% of its staff, they awarded him a substantial bonus of $560,521 in cash and granted him restricted stock units worth $817,500 - on top of his $1,055,596 annual salary for a grand total of $2,433,617 in total financial compensation.

But, let's put the situation at the New York Times differently - we'll compare the newspaper's business condition (represented by its stock price) with Sulzberger's compensation in the chart below:

Click here if image doesn't appear.

Is Pinch in for a pay cut this year? Draw your own conclusions, but consider the following two questions and answers....

Why was Pinch's pay so low in 2001? We've listed Sulzberger's compensation in the chart above as occurring when the New York Times annual report for the previous year's business was released - in this case, in March 2001. Here, Pinch's low pay level is the result of the New York Times' falling advertising revenues throughout 2000, which led, in good part, to the paper's layoffs later in 2001. Sulzberger did not receive a bonus for that year, which accounts for its "low" level compared to other years.

Why did Pinch get such a huge spike in compensation in 2002? It might have something to do with what the New York Times called the largest circulation gains it experienced in over 10 years, which also coincided with the papers Pulitzer-prize winning coverage of the terrorist attacks on the U.S. on September 11, 2001 (it won seven Pulitzers - its most ever in a single year.)

The paper's performance since then, reflected in its recently announced cost reduction measures, suggests that Sulzberger's compensation in 2002 was grossly excessive as the New York Times has moved away from the balanced coverage of stories of both great national and local interest.

Because of that factor, it's difficult to see a responsible board of directors approving any bonus for the newspaper's management team in the upcoming year. It may all be a moot point however since Sulzberger's family controls the company's board and can set whatever minimal and arbitrary performance requirements it desires in setting its compensation policies for executive bonuses.

Previously on Political Calculations

Cross-posted at Political Calculations.
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Investing in Real Estate

What kind of questions do you need to answer if you're thinking about investing in real estate to generate income from renting out your property?

At Political Calculations, we've only dabbled in this topic a couple of times - but our tools have proven to be somewhat popular with those seeking to answer the questions real estate investors ask.  Speaking of which, here they are:

What is the capitalization rate for the property that you'll be using to generate rental income?

This tool will allow you to compare properties in which you might be investing based upon their value, instead of getting into the details of how you'll be structuring your financing.

What kind of cash-on-cash return can you expect from renting your property?

The key to successfully generating income from a rental property is to have a positive cash flow.  Our tool shows what kind of expenses you'll have to overcome to be in the black!

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Best and Worst Case Investing in the Stock Market

Did you know that the longest losing streak recorded for an investment in the S&P 500 index lasted for nearly 16 years?  

It's true - for an S&P 500 index investor who plunked down good money in the index when the stock market peaked in value in September 1929, right before the market crashed the following October, they didn't even begin breaking even and making money on their investment until 1945!

By contrast, the best annualized rate of return for a 16-year period in the S&P 500 index is 19.6%, which an investor who initiated their investment in July 1982 might have realized.  Meanwhile, the average annualized rate of return for an investment in the S&P 500 for time periods of any length is 9.4%.

To be fully accurate, actual returns realized from stock market investments are less than these values, given the effects of taxes, fees, commissions and inflation - but you can see why the stock market can be so attractive for the long term investor.  That's why Political Calculations has mined stock market history data to create the following analysis and tools:

Mapping S&P 500 Performance, Since 1871

Our tool for modeling the best and worst case historical performance for investing periods of any length going all the back to 1871!

Mapping Stock Market Extremes and Mapping Average Stock Market Returns

The previous generation of our tool and analysis of S&P 500 market performance.

Lemony Snicket vs. King Midas


What if you had the worst possible luck in investing?  Or the best?  Our tool takes the results of our oldest stock market performance analysis (see below) and shows you the best and worst case outcomes!

Best and Worst Case Stock Market Investing

Our oldest analysis of the best and worst case returns for an investment in an index representing the total stock market (also taking inflation into account!)

How To Use Our Tools

Long-term investors will get the most use out of our tools, although shorter-term investors might find them useful in playing the what-if game. 

We recommend that you not focus so much on the best-case performance, or even the average-case performance of the stock market when you're deciding what long-term investment decisions to make.  Instead, we suggest that you focus upon our worst-case scenarios when shaping your investing strategies - that way, you can be pretty well ensured that you will reach your investment goals even if you have the Lemony Snicket touch!
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On the Moneyed Midways - July 14, 2006

Carnival Midway from The Jerk If only there was a place on the web where you could catch up on all the best blog posts from all of the business, money and career-related blog carnivals. Wait a minute! Isn't that what On the Moneyed Midways, a summary of the best posts from each of the week's blog carnivals dedicated to money and business-related matters, with one post declared to be The Best Post of the Week, Anywhere!(TM) is all about?

Well, you know the answer to that question, otherwise you would have hit the back button on your browser already! Just click here for the wrap-up of the week that was....

About the Picture

Yes, it's not your imagination - it's Steve Martin in a scene hawking carnival goods in The Jerk (it's also not your imagination that it's been flipped!)  Why have we chosen this particular image to flack our weekly review of money-related blog carnivals?  Our thanks to Rexblog for showing the appropriate context of the scene:

In this scene, Martin's character, Navin R. Johnson, is taught the secret key to all entrepreneurial success: sell something for more than you pay for it. "Ahhhh!" says Johnson, when he discovers this secret from his mentor, "It's a profit deal!"

It's really a shame that so many people don't get that this incentive is the engine that drives billions of people to form the relationships and institutions that provide the greatest happiness for themselves, their families and their communities.
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Managing Debt in the United States

How much debt do Americans have and can they handle it?

To answer these questions, we here at Political Calculations went to the Federal Reserve's 2004 Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF), which provides a breakdown of the median amount of debt (of any kind) held by the surveyed families. The Fed interviewed some 4,552 families, which through the miracle of statistical sampling, represent approximately 112.1 million families in the United States!

The survey report breaks down its data by a number of different methods (age, income, work status, etc.), but the method we found most interesting was by net worth. The following table shows the breakdown of the percentile brackets by which the report presented its data, along with the corresponding median income and net worth for each bracket range:


2004 SCF Net Worth Percentile Data
Net Worth Percentile BracketMedian IncomeMedian Net WorthNet Worth at Top of Bracket
0 - 25$20,500$1,700$13,300
25 - 50$37,000$43,600$93,100
50 - 75$52,400$170,700$328,500
75 - 90$77,000$506,800$831,600
90 - 100$143,800$1,430,100N/A

So that's the basic profile of who's been surveyed. Now, let's see the median debt that each grouping has along with their median debt burden, which is defined as the percentage of debt payments divided by income (also called the debt-to-income ratio.) This latter figure gives us a good indication of how well the families surveyed are able to manage their debt:

Median Debt and Median Debt Burden by Net Worth Percentiles
Net Worth Percentile BracketMedian Debt HeldMedian Debt Burden
0 - 25$11,40013.0%
25 - 50$44,20021.2%
50 - 75$90,10021.4%
75 - 90$110,70017.9%
90 - 100$190,80012.6%

We can measure how well families manage debt by seeing where they fall on the debt burden scale. Lending institutions are reluctant to extend credit for individuals whose debt-to-income ratio is greater than 36% - often charging people with a debt ratio above 36% higher rates of interest to discourage them from exceeding this debt burden level. Since the median debt held in each grouping is well below this level, it indicates that overall, Americans are in pretty good shape when it comes to managing their debt.

Cross-posted (prettier version) at Political Calculations.
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Investing: Future Value

How much will your investments be worth in the future?

That's the question that Political Calculations' Investing: Future Value tool can help you answer!  Our tool for determining the future value of an investment is unique in that you can enter a starting balance, an average annualized rate of return you'll receive on your investment(s), an amount you add to your investment on a regular basis, and a percentage by which the amount you add on a regular basis escalates over time. 

That latter feature is what makes our tool truly unique, not to mention really useful for finding the future value of your investment given the situation where the amount that you'll be contibuting to your investment in the future will be increasing.  Perhaps the most common such situation occurs if you receive an annual raise and the amount you contribute to a 401(k)-type retirement savings plan increases as a result!

Go ahead - see what your financial future might look like!
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The Refinancing Suite

People borrow money for all sorts of reasons, but when it comes to refinancing their loans, people predominantly choose to do so for what comes down to be two simple reasons:
  1. To increase their personal cash flow by reducing the size of their loan payments.
  2. To increase their wealth by reducing the total amount they'll pay over the term of the loan.
If just one of these reasons apply to you, it may well be worth the time and cost of refinancing your debt.  If both reasons apply, the decision of whether or not to refinance becomes kind of a no-brainer!

That's why Political Calculations has created its suite of refinancing-related tools.  Combined with our simple loan payment and payoff tool (noted at our Townhall.com outpost here), these tools can help you determine if refinancing makes sense for you!  Here they are, along with the questions they're designed to help answer:

Time to Break Even

If you're able to successfully reduce the amount of your regular loan payments, how many months will it take to make back the money it cost to refinance your loan? 

How Much Will You Save in the Long Run?

How much will keeping your loan as it is cost over its remaining life?  And how much will your refinanced loan cost over its full term?  If you save money in the long run, refinancing might make sense even if the amount of your regular payments goes up!

Does Home Loan Consolidation Make Sense?

If you have a mortgage *and* a line-of-credit that taps your home's equity, does consolidating your debt into a single loan a good idea?  While this tool is set up to specifically address the multiple home loan situation, the basic math applies for any two loans with similar "endurance."
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Declining Circulation at the New York Times

Is the New York Times being rejected by its readers?

In New York City, at least, the answer appears to be "Yes." The following chart illustrates the declining importance of the newspaper's circulation in the 31-county area that makes up its home market, which has dropped from representing 64% of its total weekday circulation in 1993 to just 49% in 2005. Numerically speaking, the New York Times' circulation in the "Big Apple" has fallen some 27.1% from more than 757,000 in September 1993 to almost 553,000 in September 2005, according to data derived from the NY Times parent company's annual 10-K SEC filings:

The chart also shows that the New York Times has been able to largely avoid the continuing decline in overall circulation being experienced by local newspapers across the United States, declining only 4.8% overall during this 15 year period. By contrast, the Los Angeles Times, the second largest daily newspaper in the U.S., has seen its circulation drop from 1,104,317 in 1993 to 843,432 in 2005 - a decline of 23.6%.

The New York Times has thus far avoided a fate similar to the Los Angeles Times through a concerted campaign that it launched in 1998 to focus upon becoming a national newspaper, rather than being the leading newspaper in the U.S.' largest city.

Interestingly, both the New York Times and the Los Angeles Times share a strong leftist editorial bias that has become much more stringent in the years from 1993 to the present day. One wonders how much of the erosion of each paper's local circulation may be due to their editorial board's growing contempt for opposing viewpoints held by a large percentage of the population in their home markets.

Recommended Reading

Thomas Lifson and Jack Risko provide a neat analysis of the state of the New York Times' business in All the Risk That's Fit to Disclose from March 2, 2006 in The American Thinker.

Cross-posted at Political Calculations
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Paying Off Your Loan

Borrowing money.  Nothing defines the modern consumer quite like this activity - so much so, in fact, that we've chosen our tool for calculating basic loan payoff data to launch our first single-tool specific post for our outpost here at Townhall.com!  Here's a short list of the data you'll need to use our simple loan payoff tool:
  • Amount Borrowed ($USD)
  • Annualized Percentage Interest Rate (APR)
  • Term of the Loan (in Years)
  • Frequency of Payments (Select from Annual, Semi-Annual, Quarterly, Monthly, Bi-Monthly, Bi-Weekly or Weekly)
  • The Date the First Payment Is Due
  • An Arbitrary Date for Paying Off the Loan
Now, here's what the tool will help you determine:
  • The Amount of Your Loan Payment (Principal + Interest)
  • The Total of Payments You Will Make Over the Full Term of the Loan
  • The Total Amount of Interest You Will Pay Over the Full Term of the Loan
  • The Balance Due on the Arbitrary Date You Chose for Paying Off the Loan in Full
Other Tools You Might Use (Elsewhere on the Internet)

Bankrate.com has a similar tool that will find the amount of your regular loan payment and can also generate an amortization table.  It will also consider several possible scenarios for making increased payments for the purpose of paying the loan off sooner, such as an increased monthly payment, an extra annual payment or, like ours, a specific early payoff date. 

The Bankrate tool is nice in that it let's you easily find what interest rates for loans are available in your area, although one annoying feature of the Bankrate calculator is that the page will reload each time you click the "Calculate" button.
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Welcome (and Why No Tools Here!)

Welcome to Political Calculations' Outpost here at Townhall.com!  For those of you just joining us, Political Calculations is a blog dedicated to the intersection of math and life.  What we do is to combine the easy-to-use web-based tools that we create with the unique context that blogs provide.  What that means for you is that you can use our tools, either as we have in our commentary or by applying them for your own unique circumstances, to come up with answers that matter to you!

The kind of tools we develop run the range from personal finance (paychecks, investing, etc.), politics (elections, Social Security, etc.), economics (probability of recession, forecasting GDP, etc.), health (life expectancy, etc.) and more.  A lot more.  Since we launched in December 2004, we've averaged creating at least one new tool every week for helping people solve some pretty unique problems!

Don't get us wrong - we actually publish much more ordinary blog content and analysis than we do tools - but the tools we've developed is what defines our true niche in the blogosphere!  We're the first, we do more, and we do them better and faster than anyone else in the world.  (At least, to the best of our knowledge!....)

But you won't see any of them here.  Unfortunately, while Townhall's blogging editor is one of the most user-friendly WYSIWYG tools that we've yet seen for creating blog content, it doesn't have the ability (yet) to incorporate the client-side JavaScript code we use to create our tools, either in the body of a post or through the available blogging templates.  So, we're instead opting to simply point to the tools we've created at our regular home.

Believe it or not, doing so actually dovetails well with another one of our ongoing projects: better organizing the tools we've created!  So, please bear with us as we get this project underway - we'll be getting started in earnest in the days ahead....
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